We are excited to share a major milestone in our ongoing research on coastal vulnerabilities and earth system dynamics in Bangladesh. Members of the Geochemical Research Lab (GCRL), Department of Geology and Mining, University of Barishal, have co-authored a pioneering study published in Coastal Engineering (Elsevier, Impact Factor: 5.6 | Q1).
The research paper, titled “Spatiotemporal shoreline dynamics and multi-model prediction using DSAS and machine learning along the Bhola Island coast, Bangladesh,” offers critical predictive insights into one of the most dynamic and erosion-prone deltaic systems in the world.
Key Highlights of the Study
- Comprehensive Spatial Analysis: The study tracks and analyzes shoreline changes along Bhola Island over a 35-year historical period (1990–2025) using multi-temporal Landsat satellite imagery and the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI).
- Quantifying Erosion & Accretion: Using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) across 2,244 transects, the team established long-term rates using End Point Rate (EPR), Linear Regression Rate (LRR), and Weighted Linear Regression (WLR). The findings confirm that the region is strongly erosion-dominated, with an average long-term erosion rate of −33.73 meters per year.
- Multi-Model Predictive Benchmarking: The study transparently evaluates multiple supervised machine learning approaches—including Random Forest, XGBoost, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and Monte Carlo simulations—to forecast shoreline positions up to 2050.
- Model Performance: Random Forest achieved the lowest prediction error, providing a robust framework for coastal hazard planning and management.
GCRL Team & Co-Authors
This high-impact contribution represents a strong collaborative effort led by Anindo Paul Sourav alongside our core GCRL researchers and collaborators:
- Dr. Dhiman Kumer Roy (Supervision & Corresponding Author)
- Ummya Ayman Satil (GCRL Member)
- Arabe Khan (GCRL Member)
- Co-authors: Mahfuj Ahmed, Md Manjurul Islam, Mahbubul Alam, Irteja Hasan, and Nafisa Nawal Mimmi.
Significance for Coastal Management in Bangladesh
The coastal zone of Bangladesh, particularly around Bhola Island, faces extreme land loss that impacts local communities, livelihoods, and critical infrastructure. By combining remote sensing, GIS-based metrics, and machine learning models, this research provides vital tools for coastal planners and policymakers aiming to implement data-driven shoreline stabilization and climate adaptation strategies.
We extend our heartiest congratulations to the entire research team for pushing the boundaries of data-driven coastal geosciences and elevating GCRL’s global research profile!
- Read the full open/proof article: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2026.105134
